Climate scientists predict that supercharged hurricanes will become more common. The development of Hurricanes Helene and Milton support this observation. With higher velocity winds and increased volumes of atmospheric moisture, tropical storms are impacting significant areas of the country. The result is widespread destruction and death; sadly, in locations that historically were isolated from such tragic events.
Contrary to popular belief, hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are not becoming more frequent. According to NOAA what is occurring is stronger storms of Category 3 or higher. In like fashion to supercharged hurricanes Helene and Milton, tropical storms around the planet are showing a similar pattern of intensification. Scientists believe that human augmented global warming plays a significant role in storm amplification.
The Science Behind Supercharged Hurricanes
According to a study from World Weather Attribution (WWA), human-induced climate change intensified Hurricane Helene in a way that would have been unlikely in a cooler world. The study found that:
Wind speeds were boosted by about 11% due to warmer atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Specifically, the warmer ocean surface temperatures, fueled by increased greenhouse gas emissions, provided more energy for the storm. This created an ideal environment for stronger, faster winds, pushing Helene’s peak winds up by an estimated 13 miles per hour.
Furthermore, rainfall levels increased by roughly 10%. Warmer air holds more moisture, and as a result, hurricanes release more rain over affected regions. Scientists estimate that Hurricane Helene released an unprecedented 40 trillion plug gallons of water. For comparison, Helene’s rainfall was the equivalent of dumping 2.5 times the volume of water contained in the Chesapeake Bay in three days. In a cooler world this event would have been less severe.
Scientists predict that as the climate continues to warm, we will see more supercharged hurricanes with similar characteristics including heavier rainfall, and higher wind speeds posing a growing risk to coastal and inland communities. Hurricane Milton, ten days after Helene, supports these forecasts.
The Shift in Supercharged Hurricane Frequency
In the past, hurricanes as intense as Helene were rare, expected to occur roughly once every 130 years. However, with current climate conditions, similar storms in the north Atlantic are predicted to occur at an increased frequency of 2.5 times as calculated by WWA researchers.
This change reflects a troubling pattern, storms generally considered “once-in-a-century” events are becoming more common. This surge in extreme weather is linked to a warming planet. A product of industrialization and the release of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases.
Unprecedented Rainfall and Inland Flooding
Supercharged hurricanes such as Helene is also noteworthy for its destructive impact in regions that are historically isolated from such storms. Areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee saw unprecedented flooding. Adding to the human suffering, these storms impacted a region were storm insurance against flooding and other related conditions was not purchased or deemed necessary. This lack of coverage will lead to significant financial hardship to a significant number of people.
Future Implications of Climate Change
As heat storing greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the air and oceans these supercharged hurricanes, which are a natural process of planetary heat transfer, will grow in intensity. WWA scientists warn that unless the world drastically reduces fossil fuel emissions, storms like Helene and Milton are the new normal.
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References
Climate change boosted Helene’s deadly rain and wind and scientists say same is likely for Milton, AP News
Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities