2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Intense Global Implications

The anticipation surrounding the upcoming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is marked by forecasts predicting extreme tropical storm activity. Experts point to the transition from El Niño to La Niña weather pattern as a significant factor driving this forecast. Supporting the prediction is historical weather data showing La Niña typically reduces upper atmosphere wind shear, fostering conditions conducive to tropical storms and hurricane formation. (Steve Evans, 2024)

Sea surface temperatures are already above normal in hurricane-prone areas, suggesting ample fuel for severe weather development. Additionally, forecasts from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and Weather Bell predict a well-above-average number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. TSR projects twenty tropical storms and Weather Bell suggests between 25 to 30 named storms.

Understanding the Forecasters’ Consensus on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters agree that La Niña and warm ocean temperatures will lead to a busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Ongoing meteorological observations confirm the La Niña weather pattern is in transition.

Insurance, reinsurance, and insurance-linked securities markets are closely monitoring these climate forecasts. A potentially compressed second half hurricane season may pose significant storm development leading to catastrophic natural disasters that produce destructive flooding and power outages. Landfalling hurricanes are naturally of greater concern for their higher degree of substantial financial loss potential.

Implications of Warm Atlantic Sea Temperatures and Transition to La Niña Pattern

Accuweather meteorologists have issued an early warning for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Citing February Atlantic Ocean temperatures are already resembling summertime conditions. These historically warm waters across the Atlantic raises concerns for a supercharged hurricane season with increased tropical storm activity. The transition from the current El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern is expected by June 1. Coincidentally, June 1 is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Experts at Colorado State University forecast an early start to the hurricane season. “The possibility of a hyperactive season is contingent on the persistence of current anomalies through March. Highlighting the need for continued monitoring and preparedness efforts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.” (Michael Braun and Tom Bayles, 2024)

Supplies for a Hurricane Preparedness Emergency Kit

EcoCentricNow LLC (ECN) distributes an assortment of flashlights, lanterns, headlamps, and emergency equipment well suited for emergency preparedness preparation. Our shake, crank, and solar lighting equipment is an essential tool for every emergency kit. In a previous post we presented an extensive list of emergency kit supplies recommended by the American Red Cross. There is no substitute for preparedness!

References

Braun, M and Bayles, T (2024, February 23). Forecaster says 2024 hurricane season could be a ‘blockbuster.’ Others say it’s too early to tell.
Evans, S (2024, March 4). Long-range forecasts suggest 2024 hurricane season from hell.