As Hurricane Ernesto churned towards Bermuda, it became clear that this year’s hurricane season is off to an unusually early and intense start. Ernesto’s development into a Category 2 storm arrived weeks ahead of schedule, signaling the potential for a particularly dangerous season.
A Stormy Start to the Season
In an average year, the third hurricane in the Atlantic doesn’t form until early September. But this year, Ernesto made its appearance by August 9, almost a month ahead of the norm. This premature arrival is alarming, especially considering that nearly 90% of the hurricane season is still ahead.
The early development of Ernesto aligns with predictions from meteorologists who had warned of an exceptionally active hurricane season. They forecasted five major hurricanes and 21 named storms, driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures. In July, the Atlantic’s surface temperature was 2.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average which is a significant increase that has fueled the early onset of powerful storms like Ernesto.
The Role of Warm Waters in Tropical Storm Formation
Warm ocean water is the primary fuel for hurricanes, and the Atlantic is providing plenty of it this year. Hurricanes like Ernesto form as warm water evaporates, creating buoyant clouds that release heat and lower atmospheric pressure, which in turn draws in air and creates strong winds.
Fortunately, Ernesto did not undergo “rapid intensification,” a phenomenon where a hurricane’s wind speeds increase dramatically in a brief time. However, it remained a dangerous storm, and experts warn that conditions are ripe for even stronger storms as the hurricane season progresses.
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References
Hurricane Ernesto arrived way early. It’s an ominous sign.
Ernesto regains hurricane strength, sends powerful swells, dangerous rip currents to US East Coast, AP News
Ernesto regains hurricane status, bringing life-threatening surf, rip currents for East Coast, NBC News